Friday, July 15, 2022

USD/EURO

I'm sure y'all heard about the euro falling below the dollar for the first time in decades. A "strong dollar" serves great for political demagogues, but the reality of the situation is that a really strong dollar takes away from the appeal of the US as an investment hub to offshore investors because the US is getting too expensive for them. In other words Europe is facing really expensive imports and dirt cheap exports 

Monday, July 11, 2022

JPM CDS

JP Morgan's credit default swaps are reaching dotcom bubble levels

Wednesday, July 6, 2022

$

A long on bonds and a short on oil seems pretty cash money with the slowing down of QT and the war in Ukraine slowing down (hopefully).

Monday, June 20, 2022

Atlanta fed Real GDP

So the Atlanta fed estimates Real Q2 GDP to be Zero #Recession

Fed... again

Kashkari confirmed 75 bp in July. This hawkish turn by Fed is having a very pronounced effect on mid-term inflation expectations. 2y2y inflation swaps have been hit quite hard.

Tuesday, April 26, 2022

OIS10-benchmark

OIS10-benchmark: I am watching this very closely, the spread widening indicates counter-party and liquidity risks elevating for 10y notes in the overnight swap market

75 bp hike

I know it's anecdotal but you’ve probably followed the shifting expectations last week towards one and possibly two 75 bp hikes by the Fed. This possibility is getting dismissed because well…that would be the first since…1994. And who was the first to have invoked 1994 in January as a framework for this year?

USD/EURO

I'm sure y'all heard about the euro falling below the dollar for the first time in decades. A "strong dollar" serves great...