Not Financial Advice
For anyone who's ever wondered how my brain works, here ya go
Friday, July 15, 2022
USD/EURO
I'm sure y'all heard about the euro falling below the dollar for the first time in decades. A "strong dollar" serves great for political demagogues, but the reality of the situation is that a really strong dollar takes away from the appeal of the US as an investment hub to offshore investors because the US is getting too expensive for them. In other words Europe is facing really expensive imports and dirt cheap exports
Monday, July 11, 2022
Wednesday, July 6, 2022
$
A long on bonds and a short on oil seems pretty cash money with the slowing down of QT and the war in Ukraine slowing down (hopefully).
Monday, June 20, 2022
Fed... again
Kashkari confirmed 75 bp in July. This hawkish turn by Fed is having a very pronounced effect on mid-term inflation expectations. 2y2y inflation swaps have been hit quite hard.
Tuesday, April 26, 2022
OIS10-benchmark
OIS10-benchmark: I am watching this very closely, the spread widening indicates counter-party and liquidity risks elevating for 10y notes in the overnight swap market
75 bp hike
I know it's anecdotal but you’ve probably followed the shifting expectations last week towards one and possibly two 75 bp hikes by the Fed. This possibility is getting dismissed because well…that would be the first since…1994. And who was the first to have invoked 1994 in January as a framework for this year?
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USD/EURO
I'm sure y'all heard about the euro falling below the dollar for the first time in decades. A "strong dollar" serves great...