I've been a bear on the market for months now. I know, no one likes a bear, but the similarities between now and the dot com bubble are not something to be brushed over. With the rise in speculators and "Robinhood traders" entering the market, fundamental analysis thrown right out the window, terrible companies such as GameStop ($GME) and Movie theater chain AMC ($AMC) with extremely high prices, with extremely low valuations and Reddit sticking it to wall street, a recession is overdue. While blank check SPAC mergers may not have been popular 22 years ago, companies did begin spinning off their online divisions or setting up "tracking stocks." For example, Barnes and Noble isolated their Barnsandnoble.com unit into a separately traded division. It wasn't just them, Disney ($DIS) set up Go.com, and the same story could be told with AT&T, NBC, etc... the overarching point is they are serving as a glorified SPAC. Moreover, very unprofitable companies with razor-thin streams of revenue were rushing to go public. The spectacular collapse of Pets.com stock after its IPO in February 2000 just before the Nasdaq peaked is still the poster child of wretched market excess. Does this sound familiar? Robinhood, Palantir, Airbnb, Doordash, the list goes on and on, but I think you get the point. Regardless of your personal views on these companies, the point remains, we are seeing these largely unprofitable companies IPO just as we did in 2000. This leads me to QQQ. in 2022 the sector that got hit the hardest was the sector that was the most overvalued, tech. We have seen the NASDAQ enter a bear market and IMO it is only the beginning. when you look at the log chart on the trading view you see the percentage drop, and from this view over a twenty percent correction (to the right) seems like nothing, compared to the 80% correction we saw in 2000 (to the left). In sum, because of the large amount of speculation that has gone into stocks for the past two years, an accommodative Fed, highly inflated assets, etc... we will see another 2000 type recession.
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